Title: Optimizing wind-solar synergies in China with spatiotemporal analysis and climate change impacts
Journal: Journal of Cleaner Production
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146924
Abstract: Understanding the characteristics and variability of renewable energy is essential for reliable integration planning and sustainable development. This study examines the spatiotemporal variability and complementarity of wind and solar resources across China, and evaluates their response to future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using high-resolution MERRA-2 reanalysis data and PRECIS regional climate projections. Variability metrics and Kendall’s tau correlation are applied at multiple time scales (hourly to seasonal), and an optimisation framework is used to identify optimal hybrid capacity mixes. Results show that while climate change may slightly reduce individual wind and solar potentials, it can improve complementarity and smooth net load variability in many regions, particularly at seasonal scales. These improvements are most pronounced in the Northwest and coastal provinces, where resource asynchrony reduces operational balancing requirements. This study provides a novel and integrated framework to investigate how variability and complementarity can be leveraged for optimal hybrid renewable system planning under evolving climate conditions, offering new insights for climate-resilient renewable energy planning.
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